The connection between melting glaciers, soil water loss, melting permafrost, and the risk of flooding

Abstract

Human operations cause an impact on the worldwide ecology, which can have severe ramifications for our future lives. Variations in the Earth’s atmosphere gas content, partly due to CO2 and other “GHG” emissions, may result in a spike in temperatures with significant geographical and spatial volatility, changes in global flow dynamics, and a substantial reorganization of climatic conditions. In this work, we examine these and other factors to relate glacier and permafrost melting, soil water loss, and flood risk. This research investigates all of the characteristics mentioned above and connects them using a common issue in each. We will be able to provide a comprehensive answer to these cross-cutting challenges in this manner.

Rain intensity for floods 2030 – 2100 according to the RCP8.5 scenario business as usual

Introduction

Natural systems and anthropogenic impacts include rising energy usage, industrialization, industrial farming, and urban and regional urbanization. This could result in an increase in temperature increase as well as increased temporal and spatial diversity. The rainfall trend would shift dramatically as the temperature conditions changed. If temperatures rise as predicted, more glaciers will melt. The other result will be the expansion of sea salt areas mainly due to seawater flooding or, indeed, the rising of the ocean threshold salty or muddy underground water supply (Němec, 1992). Due to climate change, there are significant alterations in natural flora and land use patterns. Altered opacity, ground abrasion, segments and sub-processes, the energy and heat balancing of the relatively intimate environment, precipitation and temperature frequency all significantly impact the soil.

MELTING GLACIERS

Glaciers typically form when falling snow accumulates over time to form enormous, thicker ice formations. Glacial ice arises once snow freezes in one place, lasting a lengthy period. The capacity to stream would be what distinguishes glaciers. Glaciers run as relatively sluggish rivers owing to their tremendous mass. Most glaciers measure the size of soccer fields, whereas some can stretch for thousands, if not hundreds, of kilometres. Glaciers cover around 10% of the world’s landmass, most of them found in the north and south poles, such as Greenland, the Canadian Arctic, Antarctica. The majority of glaciers are located within mountainous regions, which exhibit a trace of a significantly larger extent over the last two million years ice ages and most recent signs of recession in the last few centuries. Like those in the Canadian Arctic, an ice cap on Ellesmere Island, in particular, is a dome-shaped glacier block spreading on all sides. An ice sheet is a 50,000-square-kilometer glacier mass in the shape of a dome. Greenland and Antarctica are home to the world’s most extensive ice sheets.

Figure 1: Larsen B ice shelf

Source: (“Global warming is melting Antarctic ice from below | John Abraham”, 2021)

Glaciers other than the Antarctic and Greenland ice masses are quickly thinning, affecting global hydrology (Pritchard, 2019), increasing the level of the world’s sea level (Immerzeel et al., 2019), and posing new environmental hazards (Stoffel & Huggel, 2012). Despite this, glacier dynamics under the satellite age is just understood in part, as a temporal and spatial patchwork (Hieronymus & Kalén, 2020), due to a deficiency of restricted mass loss measurements. Glacier shrinkage has accelerated in the early twenty-first century, as shown by diverse patterns. Glaciers lost Approximately 16 megatons each year between 2000 and 2019, accounting for 23% of the documented ocean rise (Nerem et al., 2018).

We find a mass loss acceleration of 48 megatons per year for each decade, which accounts for 6 to 19% of said observable sea-level rise pace. Around the glaciers layer’s peripheral areas, glacial shrinking levels have doubled within these last twenty years. Glaciers are consistently losing greater volume at comparable or faster speeds than the Arctic or Antarctic ice glaciers combined (“Mass balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet from 1992 to 2018”, 2019).

It’s also evident that different glacier variances correlate with decadal rainfall fluctuations by discovering the patterns of mass change in several areas. A sluggish mass loss trend in the North Atlantic, an apparent increase in the sudden loss from northwestern American glaciers, and the alleged termination of the Karakoram anomaly of mass gain are among them.

Figure 2: The glaciers in the World Glacier Monitoring Service’s climate reference network have lost ice since 1970. These glaciers are losing a mass of ice equivalent to around 27.5 meters (90 feet) of freshwater distributed out across every glacier, according.  source: (“Climate Change: Mountain glaciers | NOAA Climate.gov”, 2021).

Causes of Glacier Melting

The Earth’s increasing temperature has undoubtedly caused the shrinking of the glacier over time. Today, the rate during which changing climate occurs may cause them to become obsolete in an unprecedented amount of time. Let’s take a closer look at the factors that contribute to glacier melting:

Carbon emissions:

greenhouse gases get to the atmosphere by vehicle users, deforestation, industrialization, and fossil fuel combustion, along with other anthropogenic activities, heat the globe causing glaciers to melt.

Ocean warming:

Oceans are absorbing 90% of Earth’s surface and atmosphere warmth, which impacts the thawing of ocean glaciers, primarily found around the poles and along Alaska’s coasts.

Severe wet days 2030 – 2100 according to the RCP8.5 scenario “business as usual”

Effects Of Glacial Melting

The main effects of thawing in the poles include:

Reduction Of Freshwater Levels

Glacial ice is a significant source of fresh water, and recent events have accelerated the melting of these ice sheets, resulting in a decrease in the amount of available freshwater. As a result, people have reduced the amount of water accessible for drinking, irrigation, and even electricity production via hydroelectric power (Loewe, 1962).

Rising of the Sea Level

The volume of ice in the world’s glaciers is currently over 170,000 cubic kilometres, enough to raise sea levels by more than half a meter and increase the risk of coastal floods (Wheeling, 2020).

Threatening Species

When it comes to some aquatic and terrestrial animals, glacial ice serves as their natural habitat, and melting glaciers will only result in their extinction (Palmer, 2013).

Climate Impact

The movement of oceanic currents controls the climate at some point. As a result of melting glaciers, the slowing effect on ocean currents has been observed. As a result of the abnormal climatic conditions, other places are subjected to extreme climatic conditions.

SOIL WATER LOSS

One of the climatic system’s primary factors is soil moisture. It reduces plant transpiration and photosynthesis in numerous parts of the Planet, affecting the biogeochemical cycles, power, and freshwater, as a result. Furthermore, it acts as a reservoir component for rainwater and ultraviolet rays’ anomalies, resulting in the Earth’s climate resilience. Ultimately, it is implicated in many responses at the local, regional, and global levels, as well as climate impact assessments. Soil moisture is a broad term that refers to a variety of factors in ecological systems. However, the worldwide soil moisture trend in recent years and the foreseeable are unknown, and the major causes that cause soil dehydration and wetness are unknown (Deng et al., 2020). Generally, 65.1 per cent of worldwide soil was dry in 1979–2017, and thus the downtrend expedited in 2001–2017; (Deng et al., 2020). Ultimately, 65.1 per cent of international soil was dry in 2001–2017;

“Atmospheric rivers track along with themselves (effectively a stationary frontal zone) and can last multiple days like we have here.” https://scottduncanwx.com/ 

Figure 3: Between a “baseline era” (1971-2000) and a “future period,” the expected percentage change in mean soil moisture is shown on the left (2056-2085). The estimated % change in soil moisture variability between the baseline and future periods is shown on the map. Source:(Green et al., 2019)

MELTING PERMAFROST

Permafrost is critical to world climatic changes, GHGs moderation, arctic ecological systems, and anthropogenic impacts in the Arctic Regions (Milner, 2007). Throughout the past fifty years, implications of climate variables, notably maximum temperature, snow thickness, and the length of the warm-up period, have led to a rise in permafrost temperature and deepening of the surface material in some Arctic regions (Hinzman et al., 2005). Permafrost has melted too deep beneath regular freezing in many areas along the frozen southern border; permafrost deterioration has a wide range of consequences, including immediate topographical and hydrological alterations, worldwide repercussions on GHGs, adjustments in flora and wildlife interactions (Anisimov, Shiklomanov & Nelson, 1997), the viability of northern populations, and infrastructural implications (Tarnocai et al., 2009).

Permafrost zones have experienced significant environmental shifts in recent times. Since 1980, the Arctic has warmed at a level roughly double that of the entire world, with the most remarkable temperature changes (w1C/decade) in winter months and the lowest in fall (Romanovskaya et al., 2016). Springtime temperatures in Siberia and Chukotka increased by 0.8- 1.2 degrees Celsius per decade between 1976 and 2012 (Hansen, Reiersen & Wilson, 2002). Sea ice has been declining at an exceptional frequency across all months, hitting an ultimate low in September 2012, recording 3.41million km2 preceding the 4.17 km2 in 2007. Within this century, the Arctic Ocean is expected to emerge utterly ice-free in the summertime, with various simulations predicting it over the coming 30 to 40 years.

As per AMAP (2011), in North America, the length of snowpack and snow thickness is reducing, but in Eurasia, it is growing. Permafrost is affected significantly by such shifts. Arctic ice fluctuations are worsened in regions where people live. In the Arctic tundra zone, there are approximately 370 villages. Numerous cities inside the Russian Arctic possess over 1000 persons, even though most towns in the Arctic are small. As a result, Permafrost exists. As most of the current infrastructure is based on fossil fuels, warming may entail serious socioeconomic effects (Romanovskaya et al., 2016).  To support bases, infrastructure will necessitate costly technical solutions on Permafrost. Coastal erosion is getting worse, there’s a lot of waste, and there’s a lot of it.  Low-lying thermokarst cycles are expected to change tundra environments with unfavourable consequences for northern communities (Romanovskii & Hubberten, 2001).

Figure 4: Ground Temperature Map, 2000-2016, Northern Hemisphere Permafrost. Source: (Strand, 2021)

RISK OF FLOODING

When lots of water accumulate and flows over land is called flooding. In the United States, flood events (and among the worst) are natural catastrophes (J Bergillos, 2019). They’ve wreaked havoc in practically every county and state, and they’re becoming worse in other places. Several water-related aspects leading to floodwaters have been “noticeably altered” by climate change (J Bergillos, 2019). In other terms, although global warming does not necessarily cause flooding, it does aggravate several of the causes that

Figure 5: Floodwaters in Nebraska pushed a tractor-trailer off the road in March 2019. Source: (“Flooding and Climate Change: Everything You Need to Know”, 2021)

A warming climate stores heavier water and then releases it. Therefore, whenever it pours, it falls extra due to global warming. Such include the record-breaking precipitation that hit Louisiana in 2016, triggering deadly flooding (“Recent Louisiana flooding linked to climate change”, 2016). According to the study, the likelihood and intensity of these showers by at least 40% and 10%, respectively, can be attributed to Climate change. On the other hand, hotter temperatures can cause more rain-on-snow occurrences in areas where periodic melting serves a substantial role in water discharge, with warmer precipitation causing quicker and typically sooner thawing. Because spring and winter soils are generally rich in humidity and sometimes still frozen, they are less likely to absorb snowfall and rainwater overflow; a combo of rain and melting snow can exacerbate spring flooding (Doornkamp, 1998). Within the next 80 years, the probability of type 4 and 5 hurricanes (the most catastrophic) is anticipated to increase by 80% across the Atlantic basin. More powerful storms also deliver more rain (Doornkamp, 1998).

DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION

Global land and ocean temperature increases; rising sea levels; melting of glaciers at Solstices and in polar ice; intensity and magnitude shifts in severe weather such as extreme weather events, increased temperatures, bushfires, dry spells, floods, and rainfall; and cloud and foliage cover adjustments, to identify only some, are all proof of changing climate key indicators. Anthropogenic activities, notably carbon fuel combustion, have increased high-temperature, GHGs quantities in Earth’s atmosphere. There are three attributes of rising temperatures:

• no climate changes, no global warming
• Climate change and global warming are actually happening, but they are natural, dynamic occurrences unassociated with human influence; and
• global warming is happening as a consequence predominantly of anthropogenic activities, and thus climate change is also occurring. In the face of mountains of visual, ground-based, and satellite data that reveals increasing average coastal waters warmth and dwindling ice masses, the assertion that none of this is occurring is difficult to justify. It is impossible to overestimate the severity of the climate problem (De Wrachien, 2017).

Increased hot cycles, decreased crop production, diminished freshwater supplies, melting arctic sheets, and long-term degradation to most of the Planet’s environments are affecting the global economy. Suppose decisive action to limit global warming is not made again in the next many years. In that case, the Earth will just be trapped in progressively higher temperatures, with greater intensity and degree of consequences, poses a significant hazard to most of the world’s countries and biological ecosystems. Climate change presents a risk to the majority of the world’s governments, yet their existing desire to reduce it is insufficient.

If all countries adhere to the Paris Agreement’s climate commitments, the world’s temperature increase will be limited to 2.6-3.2 degrees Celsius over pre-industrial norms. Current methods prevent us from reaching these heights. Climate implications are anticipated to be disastrous for the Planet’s processes and much of the world population if temperature rises in this range continue into the twenty-first century (De Wrachien, 2017). However, the Paris Agreement participants are expected to raise their intention in the following decade, and the 1.5°C goal is still not a physical impossibility.

To realize these significant transformations, citizens and regions of the globe would gain significantly from the increasing desire to eliminate excess consumption as part of global political measures of environmental assets and encourage people to live in environmentally friendly ways (Manga, 2018). These difficulties can be traced back to individual habits, which take decades to develop (De Wrachien, 2017).

New and novel techniques to change people’s activity are providing the reason for optimism. These techniques draw on findings from cognitive science and other fields to modify unsustainable patterns. With this list of options lies the problem of encouraging acceptance by leveraging cognitive analytics to optimize decarbonization (Izumi et al., 2016). This provides a chance to apply new conceptualization and ideas of why act the way they do to guide people towards more sustainable judgments that have multiple unique benefits. Additional data on the relevance is required and as a result, a thorough examination is necessary to identify businesses and use personality psychology to change unsustainable habits (Anderson, 2014). Consuming and developing this skill set, as well as becoming a manager, is the best method to help and make intentional efforts to join a partnership to reduce carbon output as soon as feasible to avoid disastrous repercussions. Implications include the fact that even a rise in global temperature will provide resources for future generations, implying that we have a bright future ahead of us.

References:

• Anisimov, O., Shiklomanov, N., & Nelson, F. (1997). Global warming and active-layer thickness: results from transient general circulation models. Global And Planetary Change, 15(3-4), 61-77. DOI: 10.1016/s0921-8181(97)00009-x
• Climate Change: Mountain glaciers | NOAA Climate.gov. (2021). Retrieved 31 October 2021, from https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/climate-change-mountain-glaciers
• Deng, Y., Wang, S., Bai, X., Luo, G., Wu, L., & Cao, Y. et al. (2020). Variation trend of global soil moisture and its cause analysis. Ecological Indicators, 110, 105939. DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolind.2019.105939
• De Wrachien, D. (2017). Impacts of Global Warming on Irrigation and Drainage Development: Perspectives Challenges and Solutions. Sci-fi Journal Of Global Warming, 1(1). DOI: 10.23959/sfjgw-1000003
• Doornkamp, J. (1998). Coastal flooding, global warming, and environmental management. Journal Of Environmental Management, 52(4), 327-333. DOI: 10.1006/jema.1998.0188
• Flooding and Climate Change: Everything You Need to Know. (2021). Retrieved 31 October 2021, from https://www.nrdc.org/stories/flooding-and-climate-change-everything-you-need-know
• Global warming is melting Antarctic ice from below | John Abraham. (2021). Retrieved 30 October 2021, from https://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2018/may/09/global-warming-is-melting-antarctic-ice-from-below
• Green, J., Seneviratne, S., Berg, A., Findell, K., Hagemann, S., Lawrence, D., & Gentine, P. (2019). The large influence of soil moisture on long-term terrestrial carbon uptake. Nature, 565(7740), 476-479. DOI: 10.1038/s41586-018-0848-x
• Hansen, J., Reiersen, L., & Wilson, S. (2002). Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP); strategy and results focus on the human health assessment under the second phase of AMAP, 1998–2003. International Journal Of Circumpolar Health, 61(4), 300-318. DOI: 10.3402/inch.v61i4.17478
• Hieronymus, M., & Kalén, O. (2020). Sea-level rise projections for Sweden based on the new IPCC special report: The ocean and cryosphere in a changing climate. Ambio, 49(10), 1587-1600. DOI: 10.1007/s13280-019-01313-8
• Hinzman, L., Bettez, N., Bolton, W., Chapin, F., Dyurgerov, M., & Fastie, C. et al. (2005). Evidence and Implications of Recent Climate Change in Northern Alaska and Other Arctic Regions. Climatic Change, 72(3), 251-298. DOI: 10.1007/s10584-005-5352-2
• Immerzeel, W., Lutz, A., Andrade, M., Bahl, A., Biemans, H., & Bolch, T. et al. (2019). Importance and vulnerability of the world’s water towers. Nature, 577(7790), 364-369. DOI: 10.1038/s41586-019-1822-y
• Izumi, T., Matsubara, E., Dung, D., Ngan, N., Chiem, N., & Higano, Y. (2016). Reduction of Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Vietnam through Introduction of a Proper Technical Support System for Domestic Biogas Digesters. Journal Of Sustainable Development, 9(3), 224. DOI: 10.5539/JSD.v9n3p224
• J Bergillos, R. (2019). Coastal Flooding on Gravel-Dominated Beaches Under Global Warming. Global Journal Of Engineering Sciences, 1(3). DOI: 10.33552/gjes.2019.01.000513
• Loewe, F. (1962). Melting of freshwater ice in seawater. Journal Of Glaciology, 4(31), 134-134. DOI: 10.3189/s0022143000018359
• Manga, S. (2018). Post-Paris Climate Agreement UNFCCC COP-21: Perspectives on International Environmental Governance. African Journal Of International And Comparative Law, 26(3), 309-338. DOI: 10.3366/ajicl.2018.0235
• Mass balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet from 1992 to 2018. (2019). Nature, 579(7798), 233-239. DOI: 10.1038/s41586-019-1855-2
• Milner, A. (2007). Arctic climate impact assessment Arctic climate impact assessment. Cambridge University Press, New York, 2005. ISBN 0521865093. International Journal Of Climatology, 27(3), 413-414. DOI: 10.1002/joc.1445
• Němec, A. (1992). Soils on warmer EarthEarth. Soil And Tillage Research, 23(1-2), 200-202. DOI: 10.1016/0167-1987(92)90016-5
• Nerem, R., Beckley, B., Fasullo, J., Hamlington, B., Masters, D., & Mitchum, G. (2018). Climate-change–driven accelerated sea-level rise detected in the altimeter era. Proceedings Of The National Academy Of Sciences, 115(9), 2022-2025. DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1717312115
• Palmer, L. (2013). Melting Arctic ice will make way for more ships and more species invasions. Nature. DOI: 10.1038/nature.2013.12566
• Pritchard, H. (2019). Asia’s shrinking glaciers protect large populations from drought stress. Nature, 569(7758), 649-654. DOI: 10.1038/s41586-019-1240-1
• Recent Louisiana flooding linked to climate change. (2016). Physics Today. DOI: 10.1063/pt.5.0210090
• Romanovskaya, A., Imshennik, E., Karaban, R., Smirnov, N., Korotkov, V., & Trunov, A. (2016). ANTHROPOGENIC EMISSIONS OF SHORT-LIVED CLIMATE-ACTIVE SUBSTANCES ON THE TERRITORY OF RUSSIA WITHIN THE PERIOD FROM 2000 TO 2013. PROBLEMS OF ECOLOGICAL MONITORING AND ECOSYSTEM MODELLING, 27(1), 27-48. DOI: 10.21513/0207-2564-2016-1-27-48
• Romanovskii, N., & Hubberten, H. (2001). Results of permafrost modeling of the lowlands and shelf of the Laptev Sea Region, Russia. Permafrost And Periglacial Processes, 12(2), 191-202. DOI: 10.1002/ppp.387
• Scheraga, J. (1990). Combating Global Warming. Challenge, 33(4), 28-32. DOI: 10.1080/05775132.1990.11471439
• Strand, S. (2021). GlobPermafrost products are available through the Permafrost Information System (PerSys) portal – International Permafrost Association. Retrieved 31 October 2021, from https://ipa.arcticportal.org/news/929-globpermafrost-products-available-through-the-permafrost-information-system-persys-portal
• Stoffel, M., & Huggel, C. (2012). Effects of climate change on mass movements in mountain environments. Progress In Physical Geography: Earth And Environment, 36(3), 421-439. DOI: 10.1177/0309133312441010
• Tarnocai, C., Canadell, J., Schuur, E., Kuhry, P., Mazhitova, G., & Zimov, S. (2009). Soil organic carbon pools in the northern circumpolar permafrost region. Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 23(2), n/a-n/a. DOI: 10.1029/2008gb003327
• Wheeling, K. (2020). Glacial Contributions to 21st Century Sea Level Rise. Eos, 101. DOI: 10.1029/2020eo143700